At present, the price of domestic wood pulp fluctuates at a high level, and the product cost pressure is relatively large. The main reasons are:
In July 2022, the output of the four major home appliances in China accumulated to 48.664 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%. The decline in the output of home appliances has led to a decline in the demand for containerboard for packaging. In addition, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country has been repeated, and the closure and control measures in some key cities have been severe, resulting in a negative impact on the express delivery business. The decline in home appliance production and the reduction in express delivery business led to a decline in the demand for packaging containerboard.
In July, the inner and outer disk prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp were still at a high level in recent years, and the pressure on the cost side of papermaking was significant. The average price of coniferous pulp in July was US$1,001.24 per ton, equivalent to RMB 6,742.39, up 1.9% month-on-month and 16.02% year-on-year. The reason for the high price of wood pulp is that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the blockage of supply at the upper end of the pulp industry chain (logs, wood chips, etc.) in Europe and Russia, and the production of both sides is limited. At the same time, the conflict has driven up energy costs and weakened international logistics.
Industry Development Trend
The rapid growth of express delivery business has contributed to incremental demand for the industry. In recent years, my country's express delivery business has continued to contribute high increments to the packaging paper industry. Before 2017, my country's e-commerce was in the stage of popularization, and the rapid growth of express delivery business was driven by the continuous expansion of its user scale; after 2017, the growth rate of the total number of e-commerce users in my country dropped significantly, but due to the increase in user stickiness, the per capita express delivery volume remained relatively high. fast growth. In 2021, my country's express delivery volume will increase by about 30% year-on-year, and the number of parcels will account for more than half of the world's total. Plastic and corrugated boxes are the main packaging materials for express delivery. In 2022, the express delivery volume will maintain a high growth rate, which will contribute to new demand for packaging paper. With the rapid development of the industry, there will be more and more calls for environmentally friendly and sustainable packaging. In the future, the use of degradable, reusable, and easy recycling The environmentally friendly packaging has become an alternative trend. It can also effectively ease the channel supply of pulp. With the addition of various new material packaging, the price of packaging boxes will also stabilize.
